February 18, 2013

Paint.

Let me paint you a picture of a future Singapore.

Lets assume we take in 100k foreigners and turn them into citizens every year for the next 30 years.

Thats 3 million people supposedly able to earn their own incomes.
Their present financial status isn't so much in question.
 Lets run on them coming here from the ages of 25-30.
They return to wherever they hail from after 30 years to enjoy retirement after their children are grown up@ ages 55-60 or whenever they are done with their loans.

Conservative estimate of 1 million couples who eventually get hitched to each other and purchase property in Singapore. (blind estimate that all married couples, comprising of 2/3 foreigners that get offered citizenships, end up getting homes here)
So they run with our current system, take 30 year loans like everyone else.
Buy their flats for 250k-500k, and after 30 years of inflation, sell them eventually at 1 million dollars, revoke their citizens en mass after they sell their apartments.
(What can we then do? Preventive legislation? What a faux pas that would be.)

1 million households with 2-4 kids uprooting themselves and going home.
1 million x 1 million means we'll have to fork out 1 trillion dollars.
Would their mother countries refuse them entry after they return as legit millionaires?
I highly doubt it.

What use have we for 1 million abandoned homes?
With such a surplus in the housing market, everyone else's housing prices plummet as well.
Nothing can really stop this nosedive.
Can't see something that yet might. And the horizon looks pretty bleak for a long while yet.
Even with a conservative estimate of 700k per home thats still 700 billion of direct loss out of national coffers to potential sellers.
(if there won't be many buyers except the government again, these new citizens will start getting angry because they will feel led on, and rightly so they were)
Yay we are further made broke especially when we have to buy back homes so that buyers can liquidate their capital and extract it out of our ecosystem.
We're damned both ways.
Free scoops of insult to all that injury.
Help yourselves to unlimited helpings.

Just like that, the illusion of asset appreciation is shattered thus easily.
Haven't we learnt enough from Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae?
Don't we yet see the collective frailty of the conditionings of old?
(I didn't even factor in the CPF attritioned monies potentially lost yet)
In 1 generation this bubble will burst. When it does, oh the carnage it bringeth.

This isn't even about xenophobia.
I try loving people unconditionally but this is something else.
(Think Frankenstein's monster on steroids and genetically engineered to lactate and lay eggs)
Stop using it as some knee-jerk reflex against those who aren't passive about their patriotism, please.
We're all in collective wok of boiling oil. And things are about to get extra crispy.
Condolences to those who take sky high loans when the bubble bursts soon after.
Suffering without pain thresholds.
Bleeding without blood shed.

It is still not too late to turn this around, but we are definitely running out of time, and options.
Otherwise its pretty much checkmate.
Game set match.
Godspeed, everyone.

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